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Waht to look for on april 6
Crushed
Posted: Monday, April 6, 2020 12:54 PM
Joined: 2/2/2014
Posts: 5544


1) The states who enforced effective social distancing early have done very well e.g. California

2)  The states which have done inadequate testing are in for a very rough time

3)  The biggest expansion hotspot is coming out of  Louisiana.  This is probably the biggest spread through  relatively rural areas in the country.  

4)If we hit 11,000 deaths today we probably are showing a Monday morning pick up of week end deaths. Current number is just over 10,000

5) Dementia patients in facilities continue to be at very high risk


jfkoc
Posted: Monday, April 6, 2020 1:40 PM
Joined: 12/4/2011
Posts: 18330


thank you
ladyzetta
Posted: Monday, April 6, 2020 1:47 PM
Joined: 2/16/2017
Posts: 663


Thank You, Crushed.  I watch for your updates daily.
Amor Fati
Posted: Monday, April 6, 2020 3:02 PM
Joined: 1/9/2016
Posts: 85


Just read that a pastor from Baton Rouge, LA, held a large Palm Sunday service and brought in 1000 people in 64 buses. I can’t even imagine how much damage that has done. Poor Louisiana.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/24/us/louisiana-pastor-spell-coronavirus/index.html


Stuck in the middle
Posted: Monday, April 6, 2020 4:16 PM
Joined: 6/4/2017
Posts: 291


Louisiana is in for it for sure.  Louisiana's population has high rates of obesity, diabetes, and hypertension, and those conditions make CV more likely fatal.  Add that to the general poverty (crowded housing, poor diet, et. al.), a cavalier attitude toward common-sense prevention is all you need to create a disaster.
Stuck in the middle
Posted: Monday, April 6, 2020 4:21 PM
Joined: 6/4/2017
Posts: 291


ALL patients in facilities are in high risk.  

In my little county, we have lost seven people to cv.  Five of the seven were residents of one assisted living facility.  A facility is, by its nature, akin to a ship.  One gets it, all get it.


Crushed
Posted: Monday, April 6, 2020 5:50 PM
Joined: 2/2/2014
Posts: 5544


Stuck in the middle wrote:

ALL patients in facilities are in high risk.  

In my little county, we have lost seven people to cv.  Five of the seven were residents of one assisted living facility.  A facility is, by its nature, akin to a ship.  One gets it, all get it.

 


You are correct all are at high risk , dementia patients are however arguably the worst risks.  They are often more mobile than other NH patients.  You dont have teh staff to keep  them in their rooms.

 


zauberflote
Posted: Monday, April 6, 2020 6:45 PM
Joined: 10/24/2018
Posts: 971


Crushed, I have been reading your coverage from the first days you started it. I have appreciated every post-- thank you for persevering. Yours is the only CV news I read intentionally these days. It came to me that perhaps, having no way to focus your fierce love for and protectiveness towards DW, you turned here to lavish it upon us.   

This benighted pastor in Baton Rouge apparently hasn't considered "love your neighbor" as meaning, wanting your neighbor to survive the pandemic....my heart goes out to all those who will then be affected by this behavior. 


Crushed
Posted: Monday, April 6, 2020 7:11 PM
Joined: 2/2/2014
Posts: 5544


I learned to appreciate tools of  statistical analysis and related model forecasting in two totally different areas, defective products and wildfires.  This epidemic has elements of both.  You control epidemics essentially the same way you control wildfires, you contain them, they normally spread in two dimensions from  ignition.  if you can interrupt the spread the fire dies.   Product safety epidemiology is very different.  You have to have a handle on cause and effect and the numbers are small.  Toxic shock syndrome was one of the great early triumphs of product safety epidemiology.  In this case the product safety was the protective equipment and ventilators.  

What was lethally stupid in this case was no one analyzed the risk of being wrong on asymptomatic transmission and the effect test shortage would have on spread and need for equipment.    To use an analogy from wild fires it's as if no one thought about wind blowing the fire past containment.  That wrong assumption meant they paid no attention to PPE and ventilators since they assumed they would always have warning of need.

So folks in charge made a series of incredibly stupid decisions.  I was aghast at their incompetence and their willingness to lie and prevaricate to cover it up.   Patients and front line medical people are paying an awful price.

 


Crushed
Posted: Monday, April 6, 2020 8:27 PM
Joined: 2/2/2014
Posts: 5544


10871 at this hour so deaths are steady at about

 1200 per day.


Amor Fati
Posted: Monday, April 6, 2020 9:21 PM
Joined: 1/9/2016
Posts: 85


Crushed wrote:

10871 at this hour so deaths are steady at about

 1200 per day.

Can you tell what the US doubling rate is at this time? Thank you.